The Ripple Effects of WAR’s Launch
Posted by Sanya Weathers on Friday Oct 3, 2008 Under Market TrendsEvery time a new MMO launches, it’s an event like, say, a really big meteor creating the Gulf of Mexico. It takes a few weeks for the dust to precipitate from the air before anyone can see what the new landscape looks like. And because no one’s really sat down and compared the numbers (not in public, anyway), it’s hard to predict future performance with any accuracy. We want to change that.
Part of the problem with making predictive posts, of course, is that with MMOs there are too many variables. The smoothness of the launch is a big factor in the early weeks, but hardly a reliable indicator if the company has a solid product and takes immediate corrective action. (For example, WoW had a really stupendously crappy launch. Crashing servers, overloaded and laggy servers, long queues, the works. However, everyone got over it. As everyone can tell you. Anarchy Online’s launch looked much the same, but the forgiveness never flowed quite so abundantly.) The first patch is a big milestone, as all of the issues that really couldn’t be tested on a large scale can now be addressed. How a company handles that is a big indicator of their ability.
It’s also very difficult to predict what other titles will be affected in the long term by any given launch. MMO players are by and large fascinated by the genre, and will try anything. “Promiscuous” is one word for the behavior. However, WOW is a success in part because they brought a lot of new people to the table. Their customers are not necessarily MMO players, but specifically WOW players.
We here at GamerDNA are keeping a very close eye on the numbers over the next few weeks. AOC created almost no long term disruption to the market leader except among PVP fans who don’t feel fulfilled (or even addressed) by the PVP action in WOW. But the opening numbers for AOC indicate that there is a significant subset of WOW users who are looking for something new, even if they are still sufficiently satisfied by WOW to return should the new experience not meet their needs.
We’ll go back to this theme in the coming months. For now, here’s the opening data.
We specifically looked at a sample of people who told us they intended to play WAR, so bear in mind, this is a group that was never NOT going to try the new game. These were the people anticipating the title, not people who just sort of randomly tried it out. Our sample has 250 people in it, and the number on the Y axis is “days logged in.”
Please note: To an MMO vet, “days played” literally means the number of 24 hour units have elapsed since creation. That is not what this chart is saying. We simply tracked the number of days in which our targets logged in at least once. So, five hundred days logged in would simply mean that each one of the players in our sample logged in twice over two and a half weeks.
First, let’s look at the first half of September.
People in the beta were playing it, but generally, it looks like the people most looking forward to WAR weren’t playing much of… anything. The beta saw some heavy action, as did Spore, and 316 logins to WOW isn’t too shabby, but still, for the most part our sample group was not really enthusiastic about any of the available toys in the toy box.
Now let’s take a gander at launch day through this morning:
The WAR beta still appears on the chart, even though it was launch day, because putting forth a very minimal effort got you access to the beta a few days before launch – and it’s very likely that a large number of our sample members logged in using that client on launch day before the ribbon was officially snipped. But that little odd byproduct of the soft launch phenomenon aside, check out the interesting factoids:
- All of our sample players logged in to play WAR, or they wouldn’t be in the sample. They’ve each logged in to WAR an average of just over seven times in the last two and a half weeks.
- WOW took only the tiniest of hits. WAR players logged into WOW just 2% less than they did before WAR’s launch.
- WAR players played a lot less Team Fortress (down 41%) and Spore (down 38%), and just a hair less of Warcraft III, Combat Arms, SWG, Guild Wars, and Counter Strike.
- Now for the crazy part. Getting on the computer to play WAR apparently reminded the WAR fanatics that they had a computer, because overall, their gameplay went UP as a whole. They logged in more often to titles like COD4, Oblivion, and even AOC. But the MMO bug bit hard, and logins to LOTRO and EVE more than doubled after the launch of WAR.
This isn’t actually that big a shock. Once you’ve gotten out of the habit of sitting at the computer, it’s easy to not log in. But hey, as long as you’re sitting there, it doesn’t hurt to say, check in on games you hadn’t looked at in awhile. In fact, the raw number of titles that our WAR player sample logged into since the launch of WAR is more than double the number they poked at in the weeks leading up to launch, and the number of log ins total was almost doubled.
But that’s self-identified WAR fanatics. What was the impact of WAR’s launch on the market leader and AOC? Let’s look at a snapshot of users. This is the number of gamer DNA members who logged in at a particular point on three successive Mondays:
As you can see, WOW was not impacted by the launch of WAR. Neither was Age of Conan. It could be that the people who wanted to play WAR had already quit playing the other titles. I suppose it’s possible that people are logging in to more than one MMO in a single day, although my experience tells me such a scenario is highly unlikely.
Could it be that WAR has grown the market? Has the pie expanded, giving hope to all the MMOs in the pipeline? Did the world actually need another fantasy MMO in spite of the various gloomy predictions?
We’ll be coming back to this topic in the coming months. WAR is off to a great start, without gutting anyone else. As our data pile grows, our ability to make predictions of the success or failure of future titles will also grow. Stay tuned!
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October 4th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
It is possible that people who never made it into WoW have something like WAR to start off in. I know that I am such a person… Since everyone is playing WAR, that is where I went… I never played WoW… and had stopped playing AoC a long time ago… So prior to Sept 18, I wasn’t represented in the Raw Numbers.
So in my case, I am now in the MMO market where previously I was not when related to WoW.
October 5th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
Very interesting read! I hope you’ll continue to update us on the effect WAR has on the industry. I’m having an absolute blast with it, myself. My WoW account has gotten very lonely, lately.
October 5th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Your theory about the growing market is sound. Here’s a thought to chew on that supports the claim.
Remember that WoW also drew some of the RTS crowd that grew up with the Warcraft series. WAR also has a following precluding the release of the MMO from it’s tabletop predecessor. It stands to reason therefore that a number of tabletop players from Warhammer are also sampling the game.
I don’t think this is coincidence. AoC, LOTRO, SWG…all of these popular (or previously popular) titles had lore from outside the MMO. They drew people in from other markets that otherwise wouldn’t be playing the game otherwise.
Hope to hear more on this. Good article.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:16 am
WoW and Warhammer are 2 totally different games for two totally different types of players. WoW is a PVE progression and gear based questing/dungeon crawling game.
Wow is for the EASK
Warhammer is a PVP centric game. Warhammer is for the KEAS pplz.
I also dont think a meteor created the gulf of mexico. I think it’s just a natural depression. The meteor that “killed the dinosaurs” was in the the gulf, near yucatan, but it did not create it
Sorry. The geology nerd in me couldn’t let that one by. I believe it was created by seafloor subsidence.
October 6th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Aye, Warhammer has definitely got something going for it, namely pvp that means a damn. Personal pvp has always seemed such an e-peen concept (my numbers bigger then yours), and really seems pointless if the numbers don’t really have any bearing on the game outside your kill counters.
Warhammers pvp system is largely based on Realm warfare. Every kill adds to your guild and your realm, every objective has a bearing on the game itself, and the battlegrounds themselves are ‘alive’ in there own way, with battle-lines moving back and forth, with zones being locked down and forcing the action along to another area.
Yes, its not exactly new, but it does force people to think beyond themselves as a player. Less me-me-me-me-me more us-our-guild-realm-city etc. As a community player, this is just what I’ve needed to get me back into playing mmo’s.
Mythic have a good rep when it comes to bug fixes and patching, as well as other maintenance issues, and their track record with content that suits the players only has one blemish (Trials of Atlantis for DAoC… may we never see that screw up again). And considering the back story of the game is 25 years old, its got source material for plenty of extra content. Hell, they only used less than 5% of the whole world for maps, so its not like more battlegrounds will be hard to come by.
Provided someone doesn’t drop the ball badly, I can see WAR lasting a long time.
October 6th, 2008 at 8:32 am
@samhain, I can see that generally WAR might be KE or KA… but I think it goes well beyond the Killer bucket due to the ability to passively get involved in RvR… It becomes less about PvP because of that and makes the entire game more accessible to non-Killers… I know that is one of the reasons I find it attractive… you can passively find yourself in a co-op experience just as easily as a PvP experience.
October 6th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
KEAS Knots Equivalent Air Speed???
October 6th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
[...] its numbers from skyrocketing among the group of test players. Strangely enough, it also… Read | Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments [...]
October 6th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
How are you tracking logins?
October 6th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
@Sara
We track all of the data via members of gamerDNA that have added their Xfire ID to their profile.
@Riggler
KEAS = Killer Explorer Achiever Socializer
October 6th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
I’m slightly concerned about the collected statistics.
If I have understood correctly, the “logged in” counter literally tracks how many times a player logged into the game.
As a WAR player (and as other WAR players can attest), the client isn’t exactly what I would call “stable”.
Therefore the “logged in” count is most likely artificially inflated due to the immaturity of the client.
A more accurate statistic is to actually use what we know as the “days played” count; i.e. the actual time played (/played).
October 6th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
how do you support this statement?
” I suppose it’s possible that people are logging in to more than one MMO in a single day, although my experience tells me such a scenario is highly unlikely.”
WOW has daily quests which take about 1 hour and earn you about 200 gold……i’d say that most people would log into wow for the dailys then go to WAR or vice versa….if war has a big queue do you wow dailys…
therefore i would say it is VERY LIKELY THAT..people are logging in to more than one MMO in a single day,
October 6th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
@Fasti
Sanya was the Community Manager for Dark Age of Camelot for something like 5 years, so I think she made that comment from her experience in that position and her experience in the MMO industry.
October 6th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Maybe those players were like me and logged into WoW the first week or so to tell everyone in their guild and on their server how badass WAR was and what they were missing before they logged back out and went back to playing WAR.
October 6th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
It’s only been a few years and we are re-writing history already?
WoW’s launch was hardly perfect, but comparing it to AO’s launch is rather disingenuous. Yes, there were occasional WoW server crashes, and yes, there were times where players couldn’t log in (which was admittedly extremely annoying). But that was nothing compared to the horror stories coming out of AO’s launch…
Today we might look back and think of WoW’s launch as “crappy,” but at the time is was generally viewed as an improvement over most MMORPG’s launched previously (not better than DAOC’s launch of course! :p). That paired with good gameplay is why players were “willing to forgive”.
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October 7th, 2008 at 1:30 am
@Reebz – the count is based on whether someone was active in a particular game on a particular day, not on the number of sessions with the client.
October 7th, 2008 at 2:00 am
My personal reason for leaving WoW for WAR was for the simple lack of “community” feeling. I would travel from server to server, try out guild after guild, and it felt like a case of what people thought they could get out of me that determined how readily responses came to questions or invitations to groups.
WAR may not have much in the way of chattiness, but the game does force people to work together with the Public Quests for those uninterested in the RvR.
Overall I’d say that the thought of “It’s a PvP game, everyone here will be jerks looking out for their own skin” makes it a lovely change when complete strangers help with the PQ or send an invite for mob killing. Certainly something I very rarely see in any other MMO.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:12 am
I moved from WoW to WAR for a few the following reasons.
1. My GF hated WoW…
2. I wanted to try something new
3. I prefer the warhammer storyline
4. My WoW client got corrupted and I didnt want to waste 10 gig of my monthly download allowance to reinstall / upgrade etc.
The Crafting is a bit lax, however the PvP system is whats really got me hooked in, the fact I can log on at night, and can still level up and make money while PVPing make the game much more appealing. If I dont feel like PVP i can Quest / Explore which is quiet satisfying too.
We have an Order guild with 30-50 people online at peak times and Seiges are an absolute blast, there is 6 different battlefields before you even get to level 20, with a variety of objectives. I joined in one of our Guild Sieges for the first time tonight and that was something WoW just could not offer.
The Public Quest system is a great idea however it needs to be tweaked a bit, i spent a good hour killing about 80 / 100 things required, got a gold medal for highest contributer but rolled 4th in the Loot so it felt like a bit of a waste of time, except i got to brag to my GF that “I GOT GOLD WOOT”, which her reply was “The washing machine is finished, go and hang your work clothes out to dry”
Overall very happy with the game, however the transiction from a plate armour healing Paladin to a Cloth wearing explosive Bright Wizard has been quiet a learning experience.
October 7th, 2008 at 11:14 am
“For example, WoW had a really stupendously crappy launch.”
I was there. As a consumer, yeah, it was frustrating being unable to play a new game you just paid for. As an IT professional, I knew exactly what Blizzard was going through, so I was sympathetic. When it was all over and we received our compensation free game time, it was obvious that WoW was a huge success and knew how to treat their customers.
WoW’s launch was unprecedented. There were no flaws in execution; it was a simple underestimation of how popular it would be. I didn’t experience AO’s launch, but from what I read, it was a flaw in execution and had nothing to do with numbers of logins.
I think I’m one of the few who was not affected by War’s release at all. I didn’t test it or buy it, it didn’t affect my WoW or LotRO logins and unlike bumping into a WoW player every 20th person I meet, I have yet to meet anyone who is playing War.
October 7th, 2008 at 12:35 pm
I can say that I was a former WoW player. I quit WoW about 3 months before the WAR launch because I was tired of the same old stuff. Loving WAR so far.
I know a lot of people like me that left WoW before WAR came out. Being such a different game, I could see a scenrio (pun intended) where people play both WAR and WoW. WoW for the great PvE, which it has. And WAR for the RvR. I’m more of an RvR kinda player, so that is why I left WoW. Playing against scripted mobs just doesn’t do it for me. But, WoW does it the best out of every game.
October 7th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
“As you can see, WOW was not impacted by the launch of WAR.”
I think WotLK has impacted WoW more than anything. Your data only covers a few weeks, and most WoW players haven’t been playing in that time period (I have only seen about 20% of the normal number of people in my guild on lately) because the expansion is coming out soon. The only reason I started playing WAR (which I do think is fun) is because there is no point to playing WoW until November.
“Could it be that WAR has grown the market?”
It’s possible it grew the market, but I don’t think it grew it as much as your data suggests.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:50 am
[...] “The Ripple Effects of WAR’s Launch” @ Gamer DNA – Numbers, numbers and theories! [...]
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I also found this great article about wiring your entertainment center: http://www.helium.com/items/1577888-how-to-wire-your-home-entertainment-center
Thanks
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Rex
July 31st, 2010 at 9:12 am
migraine